The Russian invasion of Ukraine of 2022 has left Poland less secure. With the Polish Graduate Tracking System (ELA), we determine whether amplified concerns have affected the employment prospects for graduates of internal and national security.
We also analyse changes in the proportions of female graduates who have commenced careers in the uniformed services.
A dwindling number of graduates in security
The number of graduates in security decreased steadily between 2017 and 2021. This was partially due to many who served in the uniformed services having already completed their training prior to 2017. The drop pertained primarily to first- and second-cycle programmes.
The number of graduates in security
| First-cycle programmes | Second-cycle programmes | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women | Men | Women | Men | |
| 2017 | 4,651 | 5,036 | 2,356 | 2,788 |
| 2018 | 3,759 | 4,444 | 2,637 | 2,882 |
| 2019 | 3,422 | 3,961 | 2,386 | 2,876 |
| 2020 | 3,243 | 3,806 | 1,956 | 2,400 |
| 2021 | 2,734 | 3,036 | 1,703 | 2,237 |
Has the Russian invasion of Ukraine increased demand for jobs in the uniformed services?
ELA data reveals that an increasing number of security graduates are pursuing careers in the uniformed services. It is worth emphasising, however, that just over one-third of second-cycle graduates and under one-fifth of first-cycle graduates embark on professions in sectors that correspond to their academic disciplines.
It could be expected that the increased demand for security graduates in the uniformed services is a direct result of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine; data suggests, however, that no departure from previous trends in the employment of security personnel can be observed. This is depicted in the chart below. It is worth noting that ELA can provide data on only a single cohort, which comprises graduates who obtained their degrees and entered the workforce following the outbreak of the war.
The percentages of graduates of security who served in the uniformed services in the first year following graduation
Do more female graduates in security take jobs in the uniformed services?
The number of security graduates who pursue careers in the uniformed services rises every year. Exploring changes in employment opportunities for male and female graduates who intend to work in the sector is a useful exercise.
Unsurprisingly, men demonstrate stronger preferences than women for uniformed service. In 2021, of first-cycle graduates in security, 33.4% of men and 7.4% of women became members of the uniformed services. Compared to 2017, those values increased by ten percentage points and four percentage points, respectively.
The percentage of first-cycle graduates employed in the uniformed services in the first year following graduation
A considerably more dynamic increase in the percentage of women who entered service after earning degrees in security is corroborated by relative data. Between 2017 and 2021, the share of female graduates who entered service soared by 123%, while the share of male ones increased only by 39%.
The relative increase in the percentage of first-cycle graduates employed in the uniformed services in the first year following graduation
Second-cycle graduates demonstrate a stronger preference for joining the uniformed services than first-cycle graduates do. ELA data suggests that over half of male and approximately one-sixth of female graduates of security who pursued second-cycle programmes in 2021 entered service. The uniformed services are becoming more appealing to second-cycle graduates, as they already are to first-cycle graduates. Between 2017 and 2021, their number grew by just over seven percentage points among men and nearly eight percentage points among women.
The percentages of second-cycle graduates employed in the uniformed services in the first year following graduation
Significant differences were also observed in the relative figures. The percentage of women with degrees in security who entered into service almost doubled between 2017 and 2021, while the share of men increased by 16%. The growing interest in the uniformed services among women was particularly noticeable between 2019 and 2021.
The relative increase in the percentage of second-cycle graduates employed in the uniformed services in the first year following graduation
To supplement the assessment of the career prospects for male and female graduates in security, each group’s earnings were investigated further. To ensure comparability of the data between different graduate cohorts and to lessen the impact of regional differences, the relative earnings rate (RER) was applied.
The comparison of earnings included a group of graduates who had gained no professional experience prior to completing their studies, and whose first job was one in the uniformed services. The reason for adopting this approach was that some graduates were required to earn their degrees to be able to continue their service, and that their earnings already included benefits for time served and ranks attained.
Based on ELA data, there are no significant variations in the incomes of male and female graduates who secured their first jobs in the first year following graduation. Throughout the monitoring period, first-cycle and second-cycle graduates earned approximately 60–65% of the average salary in Poland. It is worth noting, however, that the relative earnings of the total population of graduates who had gained no professional experience before graduation are lower in the first year following graduation than those of graduates in security without prior professional experience. In 2021, the relative earnings of first-cycle graduates in security were 48% for women and 57% for men of the relative earnings in their places of residence. The relative earnings of second-cycle graduates in security were 57% for women and 67% for men of the relative earnings in their places of residence 2021.
The difference is particularly noticeable among first-cycle graduates. The absence of the gender pay gap means that the uniformed services sector is more attractive to women than other sectors, in which female graduates who major in other fields earn less than men.
The relative earnings rate of first-cycle graduates employed in the uniformed services in the first year following graduation
The relative earnings rate of second-cycle graduates employed in the uniformed services in the first year following graduation
